Scenario question: given current liquidity, what price can SUITED fall to if the entire free float (excluding the 30-day staked and team/protocol tokens) were sold right now?
Snapshot: 2026-10-04 ~18:00 UTC. Chain: Robinhood Chain 4663. Contract: 0x448168B7C3736FB55C552dCe72D5f1F5B30d77Cb. Price / FDV: $0.000609 / $594K.
The liquidity (what actually absorbs the dump)
The main venue is the Pons V2 pool, 0x4d2f111a…1e0b (v4). Raw reserves from GeckoTerminal pool detail (currency-code matched by DexScreener):
| Pool | SUITED | USDG (quote) |
|---|---|---|
| Suited/USDG (main, Pons V2) | 52,163,607 | $31,776 |
| Suited/USDG 2% | 5,161,520 | $11,231 |
| Suited/USDG 4.71% | 5,260,313 | $7,536 |
| Suited/USDG 3.77% | 178,031 | $1,404 |
| others | ~2,000,000 | ~$6 |
| USDG quote depth, all pools | ~$51,953 |
So the entire ecosystem has only ~$32K of USDG in the main pool and ~$52K across all pools. The main pool is balanced 50/50 in value at the current price — the signature of a full-range (constant-product) position, which is the assumption used below. FDV is ~9× the primary liquidity.
The float
Outstanding supply is 976.4M (1B minted − 23.6M burned). Excluding what cannot hit the market right now:
| Bucket | Tokens |
|---|---|
| Outstanding (post-burn) | 976.4M |
| − Staked (all locks, 3–30d) | 193.6M |
| − Pons V2 launch locker | 81.6M |
| − Team/operator wallet | 10.0M |
| − v4 PoolManager (pool inventory) | 66.1M |
| = sellable float | ~625M |
If you exclude only the 30-day locked portion (~119M, inferred from the 399.6M boost-weighted stake) plus the team, the float is ~847M. Either way the conclusion below is unchanged. The ~222M held by unlabelled top-50 contracts is counted as sellable in the 625M; if those are actually locked, the float is ~403M and the result is still a ~−99% move.
The model
For a constant-product pool, dumping F tokens into reserves (T, U):
- new price
P = P₀ · (T / (T+F))² - USDG extracted
= U · F / (T+F)
with T = 52.16M, U = $31,776, P₀ = $0.000609.
| Float dumped | New price | Drop | USDG extracted | Avg realized price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21.6M (halves price) | $0.000305 | −50.0% | $9,307 | $0.00043 |
| 50M | $0.000159 | −73.9% | $15,552 | $0.00031 |
| 100M | $0.000072 | −88.3% | $20,883 | $0.00021 |
| 200M | $0.000026 | −95.7% | $25,203 | $0.00013 |
| 300M | $0.000013 | −97.8% | $27,069 | $0.00009 |
| 403M (float ex top-50 contracts) | $0.0000080 | −98.7% | $28,134 | $0.000070 |
| 500M | $0.0000054 | −99.1% | $28,774 | $0.000058 |
| 625M (base float) | $0.0000036 | −99.4% | $29,328 | $0.000047 |
| 847M (float ex-30d-stake only) | $0.0000021 | −99.7% | $29,933 | $0.000035 |
Direct answer: with the base ~625M float, the price can fall to roughly $0.0000036 (−99.4%), and the entire float would only realize about $29K from the main pool (~$52K maximum across every pool, because the total quote-side liquidity is only ~$52K). Selling just ~21.6M tokens (~$9.3K) cuts the price in half; ~113M cuts it 90%.
Assumptions and caveats
- Constant-product / full-range. The 50/50 balance at spot and survival of the −70% drawdown from the ATH are consistent with a full-range v4 position. If instead the liquidity is in a bounded concentrated range, then once price exits the bottom of the range the pool has no bid and the price can gap below the numbers above — i.e., this is the optimistic bound on how well the float can be absorbed, not the worst case.
- No external bid. The only buyer of size is the daily buyback (~$1.2K/day, and falling). The $52K vault is player bankroll, not a token bid, and the operator has not been buying SUITED.
- Fees ignored. The pool hook's fee would reduce USDG proceeds a few percent; it does not materially change the floor.
- A "dump" is one-sided. Real selling is spread over time and mixed with buys; the 24h tape is already sell-heavy (792 buys / 1,101 sells).
- Future overhang not counted: ~75M staked in 3/7/14-day locks unlock sooner than 30 days, and the 81.6M Pons locker may unlock later. Those would add to the sellable float.
Sources: GeckoTerminal pool detail + top-holders API (raw reserves 52,163,607 SUITED / 31,776.127 USDG), DexScreener pairs, suited.club /api/staking, Robinhood Chain RPC (eth_call balances + eth_getCode). Snapshot 2026-10-04 ~18:00 UTC.